Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has got something to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
